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The impact of militant Islam
November/December 2002
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Central Asia is a cockpit for influence, in which oil, Islam, terrorism and
anti-terrorism all play a part. How do the governments concerned react to
this precarious state of affairs? How does the delicate balance in Central
Asia affect relations between the great powers?
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The Central Asian republics of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan - formerly parts of the Soviet Union - seem remote and mysterious
to many Australians.
But the path Islam follows in these countries, and just as importantly the
response of regional governments and the great powers, will vitally affect
the economics and politics of the entire world, Australia included.
This is why two leading Australian political scientists, La Trobe's
Professor Joseph Camilleri and Dr Shahram Akbarzadeh, who until recently
worked at La Trobe with Dr Camilleri but is now at Monash University, have
received an $180,000 Australian Research Council 'Discovery Project' grant
to study the possible impact of militant Islam on the domestic and foreign
policies of these states.
According to Professor Camilleri, the so-called 'Islamic threat' has become
a significant but elusive factor in the politics of Central Asia.
It now also looms large in official thinking in Beijing, Moscow and
Washington. By combining diverse and complementary research skills and
backgrounds, this study will shed new light on the impact of Islam in this
emerging centre of geopolitical rivalry and beyond.
The analysis, he says, will centre on the unexplored but critical
interaction between the domestic and foreign policies of the Central Asian
republics on the one hand, and the evolving relationships between them and
the 'great powers' on the other.
The backgrounds of the two researchers are complementary: Professor
Camilleri has spent many years researching the policies of the great powers,
notably the United States, China and Russia; Dr Akbarzadeh has examined
closely the political processes and institutions of Central Asia, in
particular the role of Islam.
Professor Camilleri will spend many weeks over the next three years visiting
Washington, Beijing and Moscow, talking to government officials,
politicians, journalists, business and religious leaders and officials of
national and international organisations. Dr Akbarzadeh will spend similar
periods in Central Asia.
The three great powers, Professor Camilleri explains, have their own
political, strategic and economic interests in the region. Two key
considerations of US policy-makers are the 'war on terrorism' and economics.
The four republics are geographically close to Russia, China, Afghanistan
and Pakistan, making them very important in the war on terrorism. They also
have their own internal political conflicts. In different ways and to
different degrees, he says, all three great powers are worried by their
potential exposure to militant Islam.
Oil makes Central Asia important economically. Not all Central Asian
countries are oil rich, but they are important for pipelines and other
transport which crosses their territories and connects with Caspian Sea oil
and gas. As a result, Russia and the United States, as well as Iran and
Turkey, are involved in a race for influence.
The great powers, each for its own reasons, are interested in preventing
militant Islam from gaining control. Both Russia and China, however, have a
dilemma.
'On the one hand, Moscow's campaign in Chechnya and Beijing's fears of
Islamic separatism in the Uighur region make them both very willing to
support the war on terrorism. On the other hand, they are concerned that
Uzbekistan is giving the United States access to military facilities,'
Professor Camilleri says.
Central Asia, he argues, is a strategically important part of the world that
has not been sufficiently studied, especially in Australia: 'Yet, Australia
is already militarily engaged in Afghanistan, and may become involved in a
war in Iraq. Distance or remoteness is no barrier to involvement.
'Since the application for research funding was submitted, the terrorist
attacks in Bali have confirmed the far-reaching implications of the issues
to be explored. It is important not to wait until conflict breaks out before
seriously attempting to understand the underlying influences at work.'
Apart from a book and academic publications analysing aspects of the complex
and rapidly changing situation, Professor Camilleri says the knowledge and
insights gained will contribute to better-informed public discussion and
policy.
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Monday, 21. February 2005 03:50 PM +1000 |
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